The 1997 AQMP is designed to satisfy: 1) the State Implementation
Plan (SIP) requirements under Title I of the Clean Air Act (CAA)
and 2) Plan requirements of the California Clean Air Act (CCAA).
The emphasis of this Plan is to meet federal CAA requirements
for PM10 that are due by February 8, 1997 and to meet CCAA requirements
to prepare a comprehensive plan update by December 31, 1997. In
addition, based on new technical information, previous SIP submittals
such as the 1994 California Ozone SIP and the Carbon Monoxide
SIP are updated as part of this Plan.
The District has authority over the South Coast Air Basin (Basin)
and this Plan satisfies the PM10 attainment demonstration requirements
of the federal CAA, which is classified as a serious nonattainment
area for PM10. In addition, the District has jurisdiction over
the Coachella Valley located in the Salton Sea Air Basin and the
Los Angeles County portion of the Mojave Desert Air Basin. The
Coachella Valley is also designated as a serious nonattainment
area for PM10. A separate Coachella Valley Maintenance Plan will
be submitted to meet federal CAA requirements for this area (see
Chapter 8). The Los Angeles County portion of the Mojave Desert
Air Basin, known as the Antelope Valley, is currently unclassified
for PM10 and there are no state or federal PM10 planning requirements.
The 1994 AQMP satisfied the ozone attainment and VOC rate-of-progress
demonstration requirements of the CAA for the South Coast Air
Basin, Antelope Valley, and Coachella Valley. The 1994 AQMP addressed
the separate ozone attainment and VOC rate-of-progress demonstrations
for each of these areas. Based on the control strategy provided
in Chapter 4, ozone attainment and rate-of-progress demonstrations
are presented in this chapter for the South Coast Air Basin and
in Chapter 8 for the Antelope Valley and Coachella Valley.
PM10 Planning Requirements
Results of ambient air quality monitoring data indicate that the
Basin exceeds federal and state standards for PM10. These microscopically
fine particles can originate from several industrial processes,
including direct emission and atmospheric chemical reactions which
convert gases into particles (referred to as "secondary"
particulates), and from a variety of fugitive dust sources, both
natural and man-made. In the western portions of the Basin, secondary
particulates account for about 45 percent of the annual average
PM10, while soil dust (referred to as "fugitive dust")
accounts for about 30 percent. In the eastern portion of the Basin,
the contributions from secondary particulates and fugitive dust
are approximately 40 percent each. Mobile sources also contribute
directly to ambient PM10 levels through tailpipe emissions and,
indirectly, through resuspension of paved road dust.
Under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments the South Coast Air Basin
was originally classified as a "moderate" PM10 nonattainment
area. In response to State Implementation Plan (SIP) submittal
requirements of the CAA for "moderate" areas, the District
submitted applicable portions of the 1991 AQMP to the U.S. EPA
prior to the November 15, 1991 statutory deadline. In accordance
with the CAA requirements for moderate PM10 nonattainment areas,
the moderate area PM10 SIP submittal proposed the implementation
of "reasonably available control measures" (RACM) for
fugitive dust sources, and relied upon the AQMP for reductions
in precursor gaseous emissions as part of the ozone attainment
plan. Modeling contained in the moderate area PM10 SIP demonstrated
that the Basin would not attain the PM10 standards by December
1994 and would subsequently be reclassified as a "serious"
nonattainment area. In February 1993, EPA reclassified the Basin
from a "moderate" to a "serious" nonattainment
area for PM10. The moderate area SIP further showed that the complexity
of the problem was of sufficient magnitude that the PM10 standards
could not be attained by 2001 -- the deadline for serious nonattainment
areas. The CAA provides a maximum five year extension to the attainment
date for those areas that cannot meet the 2001 date after all
best available control measures (BACM) have been implemented by
1997; thus making 2006 the latest attainment year possible. The
District has shown in the 1994 AQMP that it will need until 2006
to meet the federal PM10 standards.
CAA Section 189(b)(2) requires areas reclassified as serious to
submit a SIP revision within 18 months of a reclassification.
For the Basin, the PM10 BACM SIP, submitted as part of the 1994
AQMP, met this requirement.
Current PM10 Requirements
For areas such as the Basin that are classified as serious nonattainment
for PM10, Section 189(b)(3) defines major PM10 sources that would
be subject to CAA major source requirements. Sections 189(e) and
189(b)(1)(B) of the CAA require the implementation of "best
available control technology" (BACT) for point sources of
PM10 and precursor emissions (i.e., precursors of secondary particulates)
and BACM for area sources of fugitive dust by February 8, 1997.
U.S. EPA guidance also states that, in instances where mobile
sources contribute significantly to the area's exceedance of federal
PM10 standards, transportation control measures (TCMs) are also
to be included as part of the PM10 SIP submittal. An attainment
demonstration for PM10 is required by the CAA as part of the SIP
submittal due February 8, 1997. Section 189(c) requires the establishment
of emission reduction milestones. Lastly, contingency measures
for PM10, in the event of failure to meet emission reduction milestones
or achieve attainment, are also required as part of the SIP submittal.
Major
PM10 Source Requirements
Section 189(b)(3) of the CAA defines a major source of PM10 as
any stationary source that emits or has a potential to emit at
least 70 tons per year of PM10. These major sources then would
be subject to major source requirements contained in the CAA.
District Rule 1302(p) defines major PM10 sources in accordance
with the CAA, making them subject to the major source requirements
under New Source Review (NSR).
BACT for Point Sources
As mentioned in the 1994 AQMP, BACT for point sources of PM10
and PM10 precursors is presently addressed through the District's
NSR and RECLAIM programs (District Rules 1303 and 2005).
BACM for Fugitive Dust Sources
For fugitive dust sources, the selection of BACM to be implemented
must be based on a combination of technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness,
and energy/environmental considerations; the selected BACM controls
must be implemented by February 8, 1997. These candidate BACM
are generally similar to the RACM (Reasonably Available Control
Measure) strategy adopted in District Rule 403, except that they
are elevated to a higher level of stringency. This is consistent
with U.S. EPA policy, which states that "... more stringent
control measures are needed in cases when the current control
requirements will be insufficient to bring a particular area into
attainment." The District developed a list of candidate BACM
as part of the 1994 PM10 BACM SIP submittal. These measures have
been refined and updated for the 1997 AQMP. The following is a
list of candidate BACM that are being considered as part of the
1997 PM10 SIP revision (a complete description of the candidate
BACM can be found in Appendix IV, Section 1):
CM #97BCM-01: Paved Roads
1a Minimal Track-Out
1b Routine Street Cleaning
1c Post Event Street Cleaning
1d/1e Curbs and Gutters / Chemical
Stabilization of Unpaved Road Shoulders
CM #97BCM-02: Construction/Demolition Activities
Wider Application of Dust Control Plans
CM #97BCM-03: Unpaved Roads
Paving/Chemical Treatment/Speed Reductions
CM #97BCM-04: Agricultural Activities
Soil Conservation Plans
CM #97BCM-05: Miscellaneous Sources
Controls on Weed Abatement
CM #97BCM-06: Further Emission Reductions from Fugitive Dust
Sources to meet Best Available Control Measures
Requirements (RACM to BACM Upgrade)
In the 1994 PM10 BACM SIP, the District committed to adopt all
identified candidate BACM via rulemaking action by December 31,
1996 and implement these BACM by February 8, 1997. However, any
candidate measure may not be adopted if it is determined prior
to September 1996 that such candidate BACM does not meet the technological
and cost feasibility criteria for BACM acceptability. Such criteria
are defined in Chapter 4.
To complete the technological and cost feasibility analyses, the
District has undertaken the following actions:
- Participated in a fast-track emissions inventory update, as
indicated in the Emissions Inventory Update Workplan, coordinated
through the BACM SIP Working Group. This effort provided data
on missing and incomplete fugitive dust source categories and
processes. In addition, the District supplemented this effort
through the PM10 Technical Enhancement Program (PTEP) emission
inventory projects.
- The District compiled a revised baseline inventory for the
fugitive dust emission sources and completed the revised inventory
process, discussed in Chapter 3.
- Based on the revised emissions inventory and other available
information, each of the candidate BACM are being evaluated for
cost-effectiveness and control efficiency. The District has completed
the BACM technological and cost feasibility analysis prior to
July 1996. As discussed in Chapter 4, BCM-01(a/b/c), BCM-03, BCM-04,
and BCM-06 meet both the technological and cost feasibility criteria.
- The District has identified those candidate BACM not meeting
either the technological or cost feasibility criteria. Those candidate
BACM, described in Chapter 9, are included as PM10 contingency
measures. These measures are CTY-12 (formerly BCM-01d/e), CTY-13
(formerly BCM-02), and CTY-14 (formerly BCM-05).
The results of the initial feasibility and cost-effectiveness
analysis are also discussed in Chapter 4. The federal CAA requires
that the BACM and related contingency measures be adopted and
implemented by February 8, 1997. The 1994 AQMP provided for the
adoption of these measures by December 31, 1996. The BACM and
contingency measures are under rule development as Proposed Amendments
to Rule 403 (PAR 403) and Proposed Rule 1186 (PR 1186) and are
scheduled to be considered for adoption in early 1997.
Transportation Control Measures
Transportation control measures meeting the CAA requirements have
been submitted in previous SIPs, including the 1994 California
Ozone SIP. Updated transportation control measures necessary of
attainment of the federal PM10 and ozone standards are described
in Appendix IV, Section 3.
PM10 Attainment Demonstration
Section 189(b)(1)(a) of the CAA requires a PM10 attainment demonstration.
The results of the attainment demonstration are summarized in
Chapter 5. The air quality modeling used for the PM10 attainment
demonstration is described in Appendix V.
Establishing PM10 Milestone Targets
Section 189(c) of the CAA requires the establishment of PM10 milestone
targets. The future milestone years for PM10 are 2000, 2003, and
2006. The milestone targets are set based on expected emission
reductions in the target years. The PM10 milestone targets are
shown in Table 6-1 and Appendix V.
TABLE 6-1
PM10 Milestone Targets
(Average Annual Day - Tons per Day)
1997 2000 2003 2006
PM 309 307 303 301
NOx 998 864 748 635
SOx 71 66 64 67
VOC 993 866 746 623
TOTAL 2,371 2,103 1,861 1,626
Contingency Measures for PM10
The federal CAA requires PM10 contingency measures to be implemented
in the event of failure to meet milestone emission reduction targets
and/or failure to attain the standard by the attainment date in
2006. The PM10 contingency measures are those BACM measures that
have failed either the technical feasibility or cost-effectiveness
criteria or both. For the 1997 AQMP, those measures that have
failed the criteria based on initial estimates of feasibility
and cost-effectiveness are listed in Chapter 9. In addition to
the fugitive dust contingency measures, other contingency measures
for ozone serve as contingency for PM10 to reduce VOCs and oxides
of nitrogen which are precursors to particulate organics and nitrates.
The full descriptions of each of the PM10 contingency measures
are contained in Appendix IV, Section 6.
Other Federal Clean Air Act Requirements
This section describes how the 1997 AQMP meets the major ozone
planning requirements of the federal Clean Air Act (CAA) for the
South Coast Air Basin. The requirements specifically addressed
here are:
- the post-1996 VOC rate-of-progress requirements,
- the ozone attainment demonstration,
- the contingency measure requirements, and
- the average vehicle occupancy requirement.
Post-1996
VOC Rate-of-Progress
The reasonable further progress requirements in
the CAA are intended to ensure that each ozone nonattainment area
provide for sufficient precursor emission reductions to attain
the ozone national ambient air quality standard. More specifically,
Section 182(c)(2) requires that each serious and above ozone nonattainment
area achieve actual VOC emission reductions of at least three
percent per year averaged over each consecutive 3-year period
beginning 6 years after enactment of the Act until the area's
attainment date (i.e., November 15, 2010 for the South Coast Air
Basin). This is called the "post-1996 rate-of-progress"
requirement of the CAA.
According to Section 182(c)(2)(C), actual oxides
of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions which occur after 1990 can
be used to meet post-1996 VOC emission reduction requirements
provided the NOx reductions satisfy the following criteria. First,
the control strategy used to demonstrate attainment must consist
of both VOC and NOx control measures. More specifically, the mix
of VOC and NOx emission reductions used to satisfy the post-1996
rate-of-progress requirements of the CAA must be consistent with
the controlled VOC and NOx emission levels used in the modeling
demonstration. And lastly, the combined annual VOC and NOx reductions
must average 3 percent per year.
The post-1996 rate-of-progress demonstration is presented in Appendix
V; Figure 6-1 and Table 6-2 summarize the results. Shown in the
figure are the VOC (Figure 6-1a) and NOx (Figure 6-1b) emission
target levels and the projected uncontrolled baseline. Controlled
emission levels are not shown since the VOC and NOx emission reductions
from existing District and ARB rules are sufficient to meet the
CAA rate-of-progress requirements.
For the milestone years 1999 and 2002, the baseline
VOC emission levels are below the target levels. Beginning in
2005, the VOC reductions in the baseline are insufficient and
NOx substitution is necessary and allowed according to Section
182(c)(2)(C) of the CAA. The proposed reduction rates for milestone
years are shown in Table 6-2. These rates are determined by applying
all the creditable VOC reductions at each milestone and providing
sufficient NOx reductions to satisfy VOC reduction requirements
of Section 182(c)(2). Note that NOx substitution is used to satisfy
most of the post-1996 rate-of-progress requirements after the
year 2002.
TABLE 6-2
Percent of VOC and NOx Emission Reductions to Meet the
Post-1996 Rate-of-Progress Requirements
Year VOC NOx CAA*
1999 24.0 0.0 24.0
2002 9.0 0.0 9.0
2005 6.0 3.0 9.0
2008 0.5 8.5 9.0
2010 0.5 5.5 6.0
* The percent VOC and NOx reductions must equal the CAA percent
reduction requirements listed here.
FIGURE 6-1
Post-1996 Rate-of-Progress Requirements
Ozone Attainment Demonstration
Under the Clean Air Act, air quality modeling is an integral part
of the planning process to achieve clean air. Specifically, Section
182(b)(1)(A) requires that moderate and above ozone nonattainment
areas must reduce VOC and NOx emissions sufficiently to attain
the national ambient air quality standard for ozone. It is not
sufficient for extreme ozone nonattainment areas to meet the post-1996
rate-of-progress requirements of the CAA; extreme ozone nonattainment
areas, such as the Basin, must also demonstrate attainment by
November 15, 2010. This may result in emission reductions in addition
to those required by the reasonable further progress components
of the CAA [i.e., Sections 182(b)(1) and 182(c)(2)]. In this Plan,
the modeling requirements are met by applying the U.S. EPA-recommended
photochemical grid model called the Urban Airshed Model (UAM)
using U.S. EPA-approved modeling techniques.
A summary of the ozone attainment demonstration is provided in
Table 5-2 of Chapter 5. The ozone attainment demonstration is
fully described in Appendix V.
Contingency
Measures
Section 172(c)(9) of the 1990 CAA requires that the plan shall
provide for implementation of specific measures in the event an
area fails to make reasonable further progress or to attain the
applicable standards by the specified dates. Such measures shall
be included in the Plan revision as contingency measures to take
effect without further action by the State or the Administrator.
Measures which cannot be fully adopted by the time EPA acts on
the Plan will be adopted within one year of EPA approval to satisfy
conditional approval requirement of Section 110(k)(4). Section
182(c)(9) refers to contingency measures if the area does not
achieve the applicable milestone; these measures are required
to be submitted along with the November 15, 1994 ozone attainment
demonstration. The District has already adopted a CO contingency
measure, Rule 1504, parking cash-out, which implements existing
state law.
Section 187(a)(3) of the 1990 CAA requires that adopted and enforceable
contingency measures be included in the carbon monoxide attainment
demonstration plan submittal (see Appendix IV). Contingency measures
are required for carbon monoxide attainment planning, to be implemented
if the area fails to attain the federal standard by the designated
attainment date or fails to achieve the specific annual emission
reductions necessary for attainment. A deviation from the forecasted
VMT of more than a given percentage triggers implementation of
contingency measures to offset either excess VMT or carbon monoxide
emissions due to the additional VMT or equivalent emissions. According
to the EPA General Preamble [Section 532(c)(1)], this percentage
is three percent for 1997 and subsequent years or other appropriate
values. The cumulative VMT growth cannot be greater than or equal
to five percent above the VMT forecast used as the basis of the
attainment demonstration.
A list of the contingency measures developed for these CAA requirements
is provided in Chapter 9.
Average
Vehicle Occupancy Requirements (AVO)
Section 182 (d)(1)(A) of the CAA requires the District to include
in the Plan transportation control measures that offset any growth
in emissions from growth in vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled
and attain reduction of mobile source emissions. Such control
measures must be developed in accordance with the guidelines listed
in Section 108(f) of the CAA. The programs listed in Section 108(f)
of the CAA include, but are not limited to, transit improvement
projects, traffic flow improvement projects, the construction
of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities and other mobile source
emission reduction programs. Transportation Control Measure -
01, Transportation Improvements included in Appendix IV of the
1997 AQMP, has been developed to meet the requirements of Section
182(d)(1)(A) and 108(f) of the CAA and includes the capital-based
and non-capital-based facilities, projects and programs contained
in the Regional Mobility Element and programmed through the RTIP
process. As an additional measure of reducing mobile source emissions,
Section 182(d)(1)(B) of the CAA allows the implementation of employer-based
trip reduction programs that are aimed at improving the average
vehicle occupancy (AVO) rates. As an alternative to trip reduction
programs, Section 182(d)(1)(B) also allows the substitution of
these programs with alternative programs that achieve equivalent
emission reductions. Rule 2202 - On-Road Motor Vehicle Mitigation
Options, adopted in December 1995, was developed to comply with
the CAA requirements and was submitted to EPA for approval.
The South Coast Air Basin is designated as a serious nonattainment
area for carbon monoxide (CO) under the federal Clean Air Act
and is required to implement emissions reduction measures as "expeditiously
as practicable" in order to attain federal carbon monoxide
standards by December 31, 2000. A Federal Attainment Plan for
Carbon Monoxide was approved by the District Governing Board on
November 12, 1992 and submitted to the U.S. EPA. The Plan was
revised for the 1994 AQMP as discussed in Appendix I-F of the
1994 Plan. It should be noted that the state 1-hour CO standard
was met for the first time in the Basin in 1995, so CO air quality
continues to improve. It is necessary to revise the CO Plan in
the 1997 AQMP due to new VMT and emissions data and adjustments
to the control strategy. As discussed in Chapter 5, the modeling
results indicate that the state and federal 8-hour CO standards
are projected to be met in 2000 through existing District and
ARB rules. The proposed control strategy will get some additional
CO air quality improvement. The revised CO attainment demonstration
is contained in Appendix V.
As part of the federal Clean Air Act requirements under Section
187(d)(1), a carbon monoxide milestone demonstration was submitted
to U.S. EPA in March 1996. However, the submittal was based on
emissions estimates from the 1994 Plan. A commitment was made
to submit carbon monoxide emissions as of December 31, 1995 for
all sources with the adoption of the 1997 AQMP. The carbon monoxide
emissions inventory for 1995 is provided in Appendix V.
Under the CAA, an area can be redesignated as attainment if, among
other requirements, the U.S. EPA determines that the NAAQS have
been attained. Section 175A of the CAA states that any district
that submits a request under Section 107(d) for redesignation
of a nonattainment area to attainment must submit a revision of
the applicable SIP that demonstrates attainment for at least 10
years after the redesignation. U.S. EPA guidance states that a
determination of compliance with the NAAQS must be based on three
complete, consecutive calendar years of quality-assured air quality
monitoring data.
Over the past three years (1993 through 1995), ambient nitrogen
dioxide measurements in the South Coast Air Basin have shown that
annual nitrogen dioxide concentrations are below the federal air
quality standard of 0.053 ppm. As such, based on the ambient nitrogen
dioxide measurements and the demonstration shown in Chapter 5
that the Basin will maintain the federal nitrogen dioxide air
quality standard with the projected baseline future-year emissions,
this Plan serves as the Nitrogen Dioxide Maintenance Plan for
the South Coast Air Basin.
The California Clean Air Act established a number of legal mandates
to facilitate achieving health-based state air quality standards
at the earliest practicable date. The following CCAA requirements
are addressed in the remainder of this chapter:
(1) Demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the air quality program;
(2) Reduce nonattainment pollutants at a rate of five percent
per year, or include all feasible measures and an expeditious
adoption schedule;
(3) Ensure no net increase in emissions from new or modified stationary
sources;
(4) Reduce population exposure to severe nonattainment pollutants
according to a prescribed schedule;
(5) Include any other feasible controls that can be implemented,
or for which implementation can begin, within 10 years of adoption;
and
(6) Rank control measures by cost-effectiveness.
Plan
Effectiveness
The CCAA requires, beginning on December 31, 1994 and every three
years thereafter, that the District demonstrate the overall effectiveness
of its air quality program [H&SC 40924(b)]. Trends in the
following air quality indicators are used to demonstrate the recent
(i.e., for the three preceding years) effectiveness of the District's
program:
- VOC, NOx, and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions;
- NO2, CO and ozone exceedance days; and
- NO2, CO, and ozone population exposure.
Trends in Basin-wide VOC, NOx, and CO emissions since 1993 are
shown in Chapter 3. Since 1993 VOC, NOx, and CO emissions have
decreased by 3 percent, 3 percent, and 5 percent, respectively,
due to current efforts. These decreases have occurred in spite
of strong population growth over the period.
The percent of days exceeding state standards in 1990 through
1995 for ozone, CO, and PM10 air quality are illustrated in Figure
6-2. Even over this relatively short time period, it is evident
that air quality has improved in the Basin.
Trends in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air quality are not shown in
Figure 6-2; however, improvement in that pollutant is also evident
in the last six years. The federal annual NO2 standard was met
for the first time in 1992 and the standard has been met every
year since. Since 1993, the South Coast Air Basin has not experienced
any exceedances of the state NO2 air quality standard and the
region has been redesignated to attainment for the state NO2 air
quality standard. The reader is referred to Appendix II for a
more comprehensive discussion of local air quality trends.
FIGURE 6-2
Percent of Days Exceeding State Standard
Trends in population exposure are shown in Table 6-3. Population
exposure is a particularly good indicator of air quality trends
since it takes into account spatial and temporal changes in air
quality. For example, per-capita population exposure reflects
the length of time the Basin population is exposed to unhealthful
air quality. Table 6-3 shows the per-capita exposure to ozone,
CO, and NO2 for the historical period 1986-88 and for two recent
years, 1993 and 1995. The per-capita levels shown in the table
represent average exposure above the state 1-hour standard levels
for each pollutant.
TABLE 6-3
Trends in Annual Average Per-Capita Exposure to Ozone,
Carbon Monoxide (CO), and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Based on 1-Hour Averages
Annual Average Per-Capita Exposure
Period Ozone CO NO2
or Year (pphm-hrs) (ppm-hrs) (pphm-hrs)
1986-88 198.5 8.4 2.8
1993 71.8 0.1 < 0.1
1995 46.6 0.0* 0.0
*Exposures to 8-hr CO conditions are not calculated, but are estimated
to be close to zero.
The table clearly shows that the per-capita exposure to ozone,
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide has decreased dramatically
since the 1986-88 period. The Basin is below the state 1-hour
NO2 standard, therefore the per-capita exposure to NO2 is zero.
The per-capita exposure to the state 8-hour CO standard is also
near zero, since the Basin is, for the most part, in attainment
of the standard. In 1995, the 8-hour CO standard was exceeded
in the south-central Los Angeles area and the San Fernando Valley.
In summary, the trends of all the indicators show improved air
quality in the South Coast Air Basin over the last five to eight
years; the population is being exposed to unhealthful air quality
less and less each year. These air quality improvements are the
direct result of AQMP implementation.
Emission
Reductions
The ARB has developed "planning inventories" to characterize
emissions during periods when air quality standards are exceeded
and to serve as the basis for emissions reduction accounting (see
Chapter 3). As shown in Chapter 3, the planning inventories are
2 to 5 percent higher than the comparable annual average emission
inventories. This difference is primarily due to seasonal temperature
changes and the corresponding effects on pollutant emissions rates
(e.g., higher solvent and gasoline evaporative emissions on hot
summer days; more fuel combustion on cold days).
Table 6-4 presents baseline emissions and estimated emission reductions
for the reporting years 1997 and 2000. These estimates are based
on the adoption and implementation schedules contained in Chapter
7. As seen in the table, the proposed control strategy falls short
of the CCAA emission reduction goals (i.e., five percent per year
for all nonattainment pollutants) for all pollutants for all years
even with the implementation of maximum feasible controls and
an expeditious adoption schedule. Nonetheless, the strategy represents
the all feasible control measures and an expeditious adoption
schedule as permitted under H&S Code 40914.
TABLE 6-4
Summary of 1997 AQMP Controlled Emissions Based on
Planning Inventory Emissions (tons/day)*
Summer Winter Winter
O3 Inventory NO2 Inventory CO Inventory
Year VOC NOx NOx CO
1990 Baseline 1,733 1,472 1,537 9,277
Emission Reductions
1997 702 (41%) 438 (30%) 456 (30%) 3,538 (38%)
CCAA Requirement (35%) (35%) (35%) (35%)
2000 825 (48%) 573 (39%) 595 (39%) 4,309 (46%)
CCAA Requirement (50%) (50%) (50%) (50%)
*Emission reductions are estimated as the 1990 equivalent. Percent
reduction from 1990 Baseline are shown in parenthesis.
Population
Exposure
The CCAA also requires a reduction in overall population exposure
to criteria pollutants. Specifically, exposure to severe nonattainment
pollutants above standards must be reduced by at least:
- 25 percent by December 31, 1994;
- 40 percent by December 31, 1997; and
- 50 percent by December 31, 2000.
Reductions are to be calculated based on per-capita exposure and
the severity of exceedances. This provision is applicable to ozone,
CO and NO2 in the Basin [H&SC 40920(c)]. The definition of
exposure is the number of persons exposed to a specific pollutant
concentration level above the state standard times the number
of hours exposed. The per-capita exposure is the population exposure
(units of pphm-persons-hours) divided by the total population.
Methodology
For the 1997 AQMP, the Regional Human Exposure (REHEX) model is
used to estimate per-capita exposure reduction. It considers population
mobility; time spent indoors, outdoors and in transit; exposure
by age classification; and activity pattern by season and weekday/weekend.
In addition, REHEX utilizes future-year predicted ozone concentrations
from the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) to project population exposure.
The methodology and the model are discussed in more detail in
Appendix V of the 1997 AQMP and in Technical Report V-H of the
1991 AQMP.
Ozone
An analysis using the REHEX model indicates that the CCAA exposure
reduction targets will be achieved for ozone with a margin of
safety. Thus, public health will be significantly improved with
the implementation of the 1997 AQMP. Figure 6-3 summarizes the
results and compares estimated exposure reductions to the targets.
The exposure reductions shown in 1997 are the actual population
exposures in 1995. Actual exposures in 1995 serve as better indicators
of the 1997 exposure than model-predicted estimates.
* 1997 exposure based on actual 1995 data.
FIGURE 6-3
Percent Reductions in Annual Average Per-Capita Exposure to Ozone
The REHEX model also allows more detailed exposure reduction estimates
disaggregated by age group and county. These results are summarized
in Figures 6-and 6-5, respectively. As shown, the greatest exposure
reduction for an individual age class is for children, who have
longer exposure to outdoor concentrations; the geographic location
with the most improvement for all age groups is that comprised
of the two inland counties.
Carbon
Monoxide
The REHEX modeling results for CO are shown in Figure 6-6. As
shown, the proposed control strategy will greatly exceed the CCAA
reduction requirements for CO exposure. As discussed in Chapter
5 and in Appendix V, the 1-hour and 8-hour CO standards are projected
to be met by the year 2000. Therefore, the Basin population will
not be exposed to unhealthful CO levels and thus per capita exposure
is reduced 100 percent from the 1986-88 base levels. The exposure
reductions shown in 1997 are the actual population exposures in
1995 and as discussed earlier the 1-hour CO standard was met for
the first time in 1995.
FIGURE 6-4
Per-Capita Ozone Exposure Above the State Standard by Age Group
FIGURE 6-5
Per-Capita Ozone Exposure Above the State Standard by County
*1997 Exposure based on actual 1995 data (which met the standard).
FIGURE 6-6
Percent Reductions in Annual Average Per-Capita Exposure to Carbon
Monoxide
Nitrogen
Dioxide
As discussed earlier, the 1-hour NO2 standard was met in 1994
and 1995. In addition, the NOx reductions from existing District
and ARB rules assure that the NO2 standards will continue to be
met (see Chapter 5). Therefore, since 1994 and projected into
the future the Basin's population will not be exposed to unhealthful
levels of NO2. The CCAA exposure goals have been satisfied through
the District's AQMP.
Cost
Effectiveness Ranking
The CCAA requires the District Governing Board to determine that
the AQMP is a cost-effective strategy that will achieve attainment
of the state standards by the earliest practicable date [H&SC
40913(b)]. In addition, the Plan must include an assessment of
the cost-effectiveness of available and proposed measures and
a list of the measures ranked from the least cost-effective to
the most cost-effective [H&SC 40922].
Table 6-5 and Table 6-6 provide a listing of the short- and intermediate-term
measures that have available cost information for stationary and
mobile source measures, respectively. The cost-effectiveness for
stationary source measures ranges from under $100 to as high as
$12,300 per ton of pollutant reduced. Two methods are used to
calculate the cost-effectiveness of the mobile source measures.
The ARB transmitted the cost-effectiveness values for the mobile
source measures based on incremental cost analyses, published
reports and other internal methods. However, the District uses
the Discount Cash Flow method in its calculations. The District
has been using the Discount Cash Flow method since the 1987 AQMP.
The Discount Cash Flow method is more versatile in analyzing complex
financial cash flows and is the most widely used cost methodology
by major businesses. In order to be consistent with the stationary
source method, the District recalculated the mobile source cost-effectiveness
values. Both sets of cost-effectiveness estimates are provided
for consistency with ARB reported values. The proposed implementation
schedule for these measures is provided in Chapter 7 and is based
on this information and other relevant factors.
TABLE 6-5
Cost-Effectiveness Ranking of Stationary Source Control Measures1
Measure Description Dollars/Ton Ranking by
Number (1996 Cost
dollars) Effectiveness*
Stationary Source Measures
CTS-02N Further Emission Reductions from < $100 1
Solvent Degreaser (R1122)
(Formerly Part of ADV-CT1)
BCM-01 Emissions Reductions from Paved < $100 2
Roads (R403)
BCM-04 Emission Reductions from $170 3
Agriculture Activities (R403)
BCM-06 Further Emission Reductions from $240 4
Fugitive Dust Sources to meet
BACM Requirements (R403)
BCM-03 Further Emission Reductions from $630 5
Unpaved Roads
CMB-06 Emission Reductions from $660 6
Commercial and Residential Water
Heaters (NOx)
CTS-02O Further Emission Reductions from $2,470 7
Usage of Solvents (R442)
(Formerly Part of ADV-C T1)
PRC-03 Emission Reductions from $3,700 8
Restaurant Operations
CTS-02H Further Emission Reductions on $4,560 9
Metal Parts and Products (R1107)
CMB-02B Control of Emissions from Small $4,650 10
Boiler and Process Heater
CTS-02M Further Emissions Reductions from $4,850 11
Plastic, Rubber, and Glass
Coatings (R1145) (Formerly Part
of ADV-CT1)
CTS-02E Further Emission Reductions from $6,850 12
Adhesives (R1168)
PRC-01 Emission Reductions from $8,160 13
Woodworking Operations (PM10)
CTS-07 Further Emission Reductions from $12,270 14
Architectural Coatings (R1113)
* The cost-effectiveness values of these measures are based on
the discounted cashflow methodology and 4 percent real interest
rate.
1 CP-02: Consumer products has a cost-effective value of $2100/ton
calculated by ARB. However, a different methodology is used by
ARB; therefore, it can not be ranked with other control measures.
TABLE 6-6
Cost-effectiveness Ranking of Mobile Source Control Measures
Measure Description District* ARB**
Number $/Ton Ranking $/Ton Ranking
Mobile Source Measures
M-16 Pleasure Craft; Nationwide $120 1 $120 1
Emission Standards
M-11 Industrial Equipment, Gas & $410 2 $410 2
LPG - CA; Three-Way Catalyst
Technology (ARB)
M-12 Industial Equipment, Gas & $430 3 $440 3
LPG - CA; Three-Way Catalyst
Technology (U.S. EPA)
M-15 Aircraft; Nationwide Emission *** $2,080 4
Standards
ADV-M-9 Off-Road 2.5g/bhp NOx $2,430 6 $2,370 5
Standard
M-10 Off-Road Diesel Equipment; $1,190 5 $2,370 6
2.5g/bhp-hr NOx Standard -
National
M-13 Marine Vessels; Nationwide *** $2,570 7
Standards, New and Rebuilt
ADV-M-2 Enhanced LEV $640 4 $2,600 8
M-14 Locomotives; Nationwide *** $3,120 9
Standards, New and Rebuilt
M-05 Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicle; $3,120 7 $3,330 10
additional NOx Reductions in
CA
M-06 Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicle; $3,120 8 $3,330 11
2g/bhp-hr NOx Standard -
National
M-07 Accelerated Retirement of $4,840 9 $6,550 12
HDVs
M-04 Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicle; $8,990 11 $8,990 13
2g/bhp-hr NOx Engines
M-01 Accelerated Retirement of $5,500 10 $12,480 14
LDVs
* District methodology for calculating cost-effectiveness is based
on discounted cashflow methodology and 4 percent real interest
rate.
** Cost-effectiveness calculated by ARB.
*** Insufficient data to calculate based on discounted cashflow
methodology.
|