PROPOSAL:
Execute Sole Source Contracts for Consulting Services to Assist in
Preparation of Mobile Source Emissions Element of 2007 AQMP
SYNPOSIS:
There is a need to retain outside experts in the field of
transportation fuel formulation and mobile source inventory development in
preparation of the 2007 AQMP Revision. This action is to execute sole
source contracts with A 2nd
Opinion, Inc. and Saint Malo Solutions, at a cost not to exceed $75,000
each. A 2nd Opinion has over 25 years experience in the area of fuel
formulation and on the CARB fuel predictive model. Consultants from Saint
Malo are ex-perts on the CARB EMFAC mobile source emissions factor model.
Sufficient funds are available in the Clean Fuels Fund.
COMMITTEE:
Technology, January 27, 2006. Less than a quorum was present during the
discussion of this item; the Chairman communicated his concurrence and
recommendation that this item be forwarded for Board consideration.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS:
- Authorize the Chairman to execute a sole-source level-of-effort
contract with A 2nd Opinion,
Inc. in an amount not to exceed $75,000, from the Clean Fuels Fund, to
provide technical expertise on the CARB fuel predictive model in the
devel-opment of the 2007 AQMP Revision.
- Authorize the Chairman to execute a sole-source level-of-effort
contract with Saint Malo Solutions in an amount not to exceed $75,000,
from the Clean Fuels Fund, to provide technical expertise on the CARB
EMFAC mobile emissions model and other related mobile source issues in the
development of the 2007 AQMP Revision.
Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env.
Executive Officer
Background
Key critical areas in the development of the 2007 AQMP Revision involve
oxygenated fuels and the mobile source emissions inventory. The recent
elimination of the federal oxygenated fuel mandate provides CARB and
refiners with flexibility with regard to the use, or possible non-use, of
ethanol as a blending component of gasoline. Similarly, up-dates to major
components of the mobile source emissions inventory are underway, for both
on-road and off-road vehicles. State-of-the-art knowledge, reflecting the
latest data and trends, in these two areas are essential in the preparation
of the AQMP baseline emissions inventory, the development of control
measures, and the attainment demonstration for the federal PM 2.5 and 8-hour
ozone ambient air quality standards.
CARB is in the process of updating the Phase 3 gasoline regulations,
including the fuel Predictive Model, to reflect the elimination of the
federal oxygenated fuel mandate in HR6 (Energy Act of 2005). With the
implementation of this statute, the 15-year-old federal policy which
mandated minimum levels of oxygenated fuels in California will come to an
end. The structure of future summertime gasoline policy will be one of the
central issues for the upcoming AQMP Revision. There are a number of complex
factors which need to be fully accounted for in order to define and assess
relevant AQMP scenarios related to fuel composition, including various
options for ethanol-blended gasoline during the summer months.
With respect to the fuel Predictive Model used to qualify all
formulations of gasoline sold within the state, the underlying data used to
calibrate this model is quite extensive. The Predictive Model is used as the
basis of adjusting gasoline components such as sulfur, aromatics, olefins,
distillation temperatures and Reid Vapor Pressure. In light of the
elimination of the oxygenated fuel mandate, refiners will have greater
degrees of freedom in supplying California gasoline while also meeting the
national Renewable Fuel Standard requirements for ethanol in gasoline. There
is also considerable interest in the possible implementation of E-85 (i.e.,
85 percent ethanol in gasoline) through a broader commercialization of
flexible fuel vehicle technology.
Under current CARB guidelines, it is possible that the summertime
gasoline pool, for example, could have a mix of oxygenated and
non-oxygenated (i.e., zero ethanol con-tent) fuels, resulting in a
commingling of these fuels with a possible commensurate increase in
evaporative emission characteristics. Varying ethanol content is also
expected to have some impact on hydrocarbon permeation emissions, as well as
NOx exhaust emissions. It is important that the 2007 AQMP Revision reflect
the most up-to-date assessment possible of the implications of alternative
oxygenated fuel practices and policies. Expert knowledge is needed to help
staff better assess the implications of gasoline fuel policies as they
relate to near-term and longer-term compliance with state and federal
ambient air quality standards.
The mobile source emissions inventory is also a critical component in the
development of the 2007 AQMP Revision. Revisions to the mobile source
emissions inventory have been made over the last several years, and continue
to be made, to incorporate the best available knowledge. It is essential
that the latest technical data on in-use emission factors be used in its
formulation. For example, new data is becoming available with respect to
On-Board Diagnostics II, in-use performance, vehicle demographics, vehicle
inspection and maintenance, fuel solubility and evaporation effects, brand
loyalty to various types of fuels, off-road emission factors, and other
aspects of the mobile source emissions inventory. A full understanding of
market trends, recent certification data, engineering and technology trends,
as well as inventory uncertainties, is central to properly evaluating the
impact of control strategies relative to the AQMD baseline inventory and
emissions forecasts. It is important, for example, to understand the nuances
in assumptions which influence emission inventory estimates, which in turn
affect air quality modeling scenarios, and ultimately control measure design
and analysis.
Staff does not have sufficient in-house technical resources to address
the complexities of fuel reformulation and mobile source emissions inventory
assessment in preparing the 2007 AQMP Revision. Therefore, staff is
recommending retaining uniquely qualified external experts to assist staff
with these critical areas during the preparation of the 2007 AQMP Revision.
Proposal
Staff is proposing that two technical consultants be retained to provide
comments and technical input regarding fuel reformulation, the CARB fuel
Predictive Model, and mobile source emissions inventory development. This
action is to execute sole-source level-of-effort contracts to provide
technical support services needed in the development of the 2007 AQMP
Revision. Specifically, staff is requesting the Board’s approval to execute
a sole-source level-of-effort contract with “A 2nd
Opinion, Inc.” and a sole-source level-of-effort contract with Saint Malo
Solutions to conduct work related to the development of the 2007 AQMP
Revision at a cost not to exceed $75,000 each. Both consultants will provide
important analysis directly related to (1) mobile source emissions
inventories, (2) modeling related to air quality and gasoline formulation
certification (i.e., CARB’s Predictive Model), (3) scenario construction,
and (4) AQMP control measure development and analysis, as needed. Sufficient
funds are available from the Clean Fuels Fund to cover the total cost of
$150,000.
Sole Source Justification
AQMD’s “Procurement Policy and Procedure” Section VIII.B.2 lists a number
of conditions under which a contract may enter into on a sole-source basis.
The recommendation to award a sole-source contract to A 2nd
Opinion falls under condition VIII.B.2.c.(1) – “The unique experience and
capabilities of the proposed contractor or contractor team,” as the
contractor has unique experience and capabilities in the area of fuel
expertise. The firm’s principal, Mr. Cal Hodge, has extensive knowledge of
oxygenated fuels, their underlying chemistry, the modeling protocols used by
U.S. EPA and CARB to certify fuel formulations, the options available to
refiners to achieve various levels of oxygenated blendstock and finished
product, air quality models, emission data bases used to calibrate the CARB
Predictive Model, refinery econometric optimization models as well as the
regulatory foundation for past and current oxygenated fuels policy in
California and nationally. He is currently providing expert advice on
gasoline and biodiesel issues to the European Union and European refiners,
and has had major management responsibilities for a major U.S. oil refiner
(Valero) in the area of compliance with federal oxygenated fuel
requirements. He has been intimately involved in development of oxygenated
fuel policy at the federal and state level, including participation in the
U.S. EPA’s Ozone Transport Assessment Group organized for the east coast.
Mr. Hodge was directly involved in U.S. EPA’s RFG Regulatory Negotiation
process following the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990. He has also provided
expert analytical support as a manager at Pace Consultants, an
internationally recognized firm focusing on refinery processes. In addition,
he has been responsible for engineering and technical services while
employed at Amoco’s refineries in Missouri, Texas and Illinois. He combines
a unique combination of knowledge and experience which will be of direct
relevance to the 2007 AQMP Revision process.
Mr. Hodge provides a unique combination of skills, background and
qualities which make him highly desirable to the AQMD as a temporary
consultant. He has hands-on refinery experience directly related to the use
of oxygenated fuels, he has interacted with CARB and U.S. EPA from the
earliest days of the oxygenated fuel program on models which accurately
reflect the impact of oxygenates on emissions and gasoline fuel properties,
and he has detailed knowledge about the core data sets upon which the CARB’s
Predictive Model is premised. Staff recommends that the District utilize
this combination of qualities to obtain the best insight possible on current
and potential future oxygenate fuel policies, to design the most appropriate
scenarios to model as part of the up-coming AQMP revision, and to assess the
implications of these scenarios on control measures and recommended policies
to be reflected in the upcoming 2007 AQMP revision.
The recommendation to award a sole source contract to Saint Malo
Solutions, Environ-mental Consultants also falls under Procurement condition
VIII.B.2.c.(1). Mr. Mark Carlock, the principal of Saint Malo Solutions, is
a nationally recognized expert on emissions inventory development and
validation. He was formerly the Branch Chief for CARB’s Mobile Source
Analysis Branch, with direct responsibility for developing and updating the
EMFAC emissions inventory used in the development of the 2003 AQMP. Mr.
Carlock has participated in numerous technical studies on behalf of CARB,
including those on On-Board Diagnostics II systems, fuel permeation effects,
in-use emissions, Inspection and Maintenance program, off-road sources, and
numerous other aspects of the mobile emissions inventory. He has detailed
knowledge of all of the assumptions underlying CARB’s current EMFAC
emissions inventory. He also has detailed knowledge of emissions test data
from the Coordinating Research Council as well as proprietary auto
manufacturer data sets. He has participated directly in CARB control measure
assessment and development.
St. Malo Solutions can provide several important and unique qualities of
importance to the District. Its principal, Mr. Mark Carlock, had lead
authority in developing the inventories of mobile source emissions which are
the foundation of the most current AQMP, he has detailed knowledge of the
key areas which need refinement and updating, and he already has the
technical background and data needed to recommend specific changes and the
basis for those changes in a timely manner as part of the upcoming AQMP
revision.
Benefits to AQMD
The development of the 2007 AQMP Revision must be technically sound and
withstand public scrutiny. Retaining outside technical expertise to assist
staff in the development of the 2007 AQMP Revision is critical to an
informed process. The experience and knowledge of A 2nd
Opinion will provide significant benefits to the District in the form of
state-of-the-art understanding of oxygenated fuel issues and options,
inventory uncertainties, air quality modeling analysis of specific fuel
scenarios, and AQMD control measure design and analysis. Similarly, the
unique experience of Saint Malo Solutions will be very valuable in helping
provide state-of-the-art input on the 2007 AQMP Revision’s emissions
inventory, underlying modeling, scenario construction and control measure
development.
Resource Impacts
Sufficient funding for the described consultant services is available in
the Clean Fuels Fund. Section 40448.5(e) provides for the consideration of
“cost-effectiveness of emission reductions associated with clean fuels
compared with other pollution control alternatives” when considering which
clean fuels projects to promote. As such, Clean Fuels funds may be used to
assist in the technical development of the mobile source emissions inventory
and mobile source control measures for the 2007 AQMP Revision to help staff
develop and prioritize future clean fuels projects.
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