Feb. 25, 2003
Latest Science Raises New Challenges
The
region’s air quality agency today unveiled its draft 2003 clean air blueprint
for achieving clean air standards in Southern California by the end of the
decade.
“We have waged a sustained and
successful war on smog,” said Barry Wallerstein, executive officer of the South
Coast Air Quality Management District.
“The air is dramatically
cleaner today than it was a decade ago, and it will continue to improve under
this plan.”
The draft 2003 Air
Quality Management Plan outlines the air pollution control measures needed to
meet federal health standards for ozone by 2010, and for fine particulates,
known as PM10, by 2006. It also demonstrates how the federal
standard for carbon monoxide, achieved for the first time at the end of last
year, will be maintained. Lastly, the plan takes a preliminary look at what
will be needed to achieve new and more stringent health standards for ozone and
ultrafine particulates known as PM2.5.
The air quality plan was
last revised in 1997, with amendments made in 1999.
Ozone and fine
particulates are two of the region’s worst pollutants, responsible for a wide
range of health effects including slowed lung growth in children, worsening of
asthma symptoms, increased susceptibility to respiratory infections, increased
hospital admissions and increased death rates.
Latest Science Used
For each plan, AQMD uses
the latest and best science available to calculate the current and future
emission levels from cars, trucks, businesses and all other sources as well as
the emission reductions that are needed to meet clean air standards.
“As a science-based
agency, we are committed to using the latest and best science to develop our
plan,” Wallerstein said. “What we have learned is that the clean air goal will
be a greater challenge than we previously understood.”
Specifically, the latest
data from the California Air Resources Board shows that emissions from cars,
trucks and other vehicles – particularly older cars – are significantly higher
than previously estimated. For the year 1997, volatile organic compound (VOC)
emissions from on-road vehicles are 533 tons per day – 20 percent higher than
previously estimated. On-road vehicle emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are
841 tons per day – 39 percent higher than previously estimated.
VOCs – from paints,
consumer products and vehicle fuel combustion – and NOx – primarily from vehicle
fuel combustion – are the two major building blocks of ozone and fine
particulates.
The higher estimates are
due to a number of factors, including better quantification of emissions from
pre-1998 cars. By 2010, pre-1998 cars will account for 25 percent of the miles
driven but 80 percent of the air pollution from cars, according to CARB.
Pre-1998 cars have higher emissions because they were subject to less stringent
emission standards when manufactured and their emission control systems may
deteriorate over time.
Secondly, the most
recent regional smog study and the latest computer models show that more
emissions will have to be reduced than previously thought to reach federal clean
air standards. The draft 2003 plan shows that the region’s “carrying capacity”
– the amount of pollution that the atmosphere can sustain and still meet the
current ozone standards – is 310 tons per day of VOCs. Since that is about 100
tons of VOCs less than the carrying capacity in AQMD’s last plan, the current
plan will have to identify new air pollution control measures to make up the
difference. AQMD staff is proposing a carrying capacity for NOx of 530 tons per
day, the same as in the last plan.
The draft 2003 air
quality plan identifies 24 air pollution control measures to be adopted by AQMD
to further reduce emissions from businesses, industry and paints. It also
identifies 29 measures to be adopted by CARB and the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency to further reduce pollution from cars, trucks, construction
equipment, aircraft, ships and consumer products.
To reach federal health
standards, however, additional control measures above and beyond those
identified will have to reduce 226 tons per day of VOCs and 161 tons per day of
NOx. These are known as “black box” measures because specific control
strategies may require future development and commercialization of clean air
technologies. The current “black box” is larger than the previous plan’s by
about 100 tons per day of VOCs.
Fair Share of Black
Box
In the latest plan, AQMD
has proposed specific assignments of “black box” measures to AQMD, CARB and U.S.
EPA. An alternate option, recommended by CARB staff, would not assign any
“black box” measures at this time.
“AQMD and the
businesses it regulates have accomplished more than their fair share of emission
reductions,” Wallerstein said. “Since the lion’s share of air pollution comes
from vehicles, we would like to see an intensive effort focused on reducing
emissions from these sources.”
To achieve the final
emission reductions needed to meet federal health standards, AQMD’s Governing
Board also will evaluate:
- The possibility of seeking expanded legal authority to regulate
emissions from existing vehicles and consumer products; and
- Broadening the use of mitigation fees to fund emission reductions
from mobile sources.
Adoption Process
AQMD plans a series of
six public workshops starting next week to gather public input on the air
quality plan. (See sidebar.) AQMD’s Board will conduct a preliminary hearing
on the plan this spring and a public hearing to adopt it this summer. The plan
then must be approved first by CARB and then by U.S. EPA.
“As we get closer to our
goal of meeting federal health standards, we will face some daunting
challenges,” Wallerstein said. “In spite of those hurdles, we are convinced that
with the cooperation of residents, businesses and the state and federal
governments, we can restore blue skies to the Southland.”
AQMD is the air
pollution control agency for Orange County and major portions of Los Angeles,
San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
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